Manila – Nothing happened for decades; Russian revolutionary leader Vladimir Ilyich Lenin observed after the dramatic decline and eventual collapse of Russia’s centuries-old tsarist regime. Of course, the question of “revolution” has once again become salient in our new political moment.
From the sudden collapse of the half-century-old Assad regime in Syria, to the historic impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol, to Donald Trump’s smooth return to the White House, we are witnessing nothing less than the dismantling and uncertainty of age-old assumptions The dawn of a new era. The world’s most mature democracies, as well as entrenched authoritarian states, including Russia and China, are experiencing unprecedented systemic vulnerabilities. So, dear reader, where is our beloved Philippines headed?
It’s easy to view our domestic politics as more “noise” than “signal,” more drama than substance. We have had a surreal year. Which other former president in the world has publicly accused his immediate successor (and ostensible ally) of being a “junkie” and shortly after called for an entire province to be separated from the rest of the country? Is there any other sitting vice president in this universe who has not once but twice threatened to murder the commander in chief, either through assassination or beheading?
In any other self-respecting nation, a swift and decisive response to such a serious threat to the republic would be a sure thing. Unfortunately, our system is a peculiar one and the rule of law is at best an aspiration and at worst a dangerous illusion. Months of blockbuster “hearings” have been held by the Philippine Legislature, which has scrutinized a series of hooliganism and exposed a series of questionable actions under Duterte’s leadership, but true accountability remains a big question mark.
Are enough senators willing to risk their electoral prospects to hold a powerful dynasty accountable? Are domestic courts safe and insulated enough to handle the country's most popular figures? Will we finally cooperate with the International Criminal Court to hold former government elites accountable for mass atrocities?
Meanwhile, a public plagued by high food inflation and slowing wage growth is coming to terms with a series of highly questionable developments during the Philippine Legislature’s recent budget hearings. There is growing consensus that politicians competing for discretionary funding ahead of next year's election are sacrificing much-needed long-term investment in our key institutions, including health care, education and defence.
Philippine politics is a classic case of “unstable equilibrium”. On the surface this may seem like a beautiful chaos, but it is also increasingly unsustainable and therefore susceptible to radical transformation. In many ways, this was the inevitable conclusion I reached during an illuminating conversation with two of the country’s most knowledgeable political figures.
As a year-end special for my podcast “Deep Dive,” I sat down for a nearly two-hour conversation with former Associate Justice Antonio Carpio and former presidential political affairs adviser Ronald Lamas. We begin with “The Event,” an analysis of the latest political developments, from the controversy surrounding the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation to the dubious reinstatement of the Ayuda sa Kapos ang Kita program and the shameful massive cuts in the Department of Education’s budget. Of course, the ensuing discussion touches on the fate of the Duterte dynasty, the prospect of impeachment of the vice president, and the pros and cons of amending the Charter in the next Congress.
Ultimately, we had more of a “long-term” discussion, assessing the long-term prospects for democracy in the Philippines. With a handful of dynasties still dominating our elected offices and even fewer oligarchs gobbling up much of the growth recently created, is the status quo morally and politically sustainable?
A small elite appears to have hijacked elected offices and the commanding heights of our economy. We will soon face a crossroads, either radical reform within the confines of the constitution or a complete break, which could pave the way for a “revolutionary” government to emerge from the ruins of a completely discredited system. After decades of political stagnation, the Philippines is finally ripe for change.
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