A new federal review concludes that consuming more than one drink per day leads to a sharply increased risk of premature death. The draft report was released Tuesday, following a major update to influential federal guidance on how much Alcohol Americans should drink.
“In the United States, men and women have a 1 in 1,000 risk of dying from alcohol-related deaths if they have more than 7 drinks per week. If they have more than 9 drinks per week, this risk increases to 1 in 100. ” the authors concluded in the final draft released by the Department of Health and Human Services.
The review is one of two written by a committee of outside experts to inform this year's update of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. Another was published last month by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
The upcoming guidance is important because the FDA and other agencies often rely on these recommendations to justify new rules, such as how to label foods and beverages. It is currently recommended that men have no more than two drinks a day and women have no more than one drink a day.
“Once you drink too much every day, your risk of dying from alcohol is already over one in 100. Some people may think that doesn't sound like a lot, but in terms of public health guidelines, it is, it's really high,” said Dr. Timothy Nano, director of the Canadian Institute on Drug Use Research and one of the report's authors.
Naimi was careful to say that the report “does not endorse any level of risk” from drinking alcohol, but noted that other countries and health regulations have used risks of death of one percent and one in 1,000 as thresholds for setting rules.
It's unclear whether there will be an incoming Trump administration The findings from the latest report will be incorporated into any updated guidance. In 2020, the Trump administration rejected calls from an outside expert panel to recommend that all Americans drink no more than once a day, saying “emerging evidence” did not support the measure.
Alcohol linked to cancer, injuries and death from other causes
The report aims to weigh all the data on a range of diseases and injuries and summarize a complex network of studies looking at Alcohol health risks and welfare included in estimates of “alcohol-attributable deaths.”
Nami said this model may underestimate alcohol's true health risks, given the limited ways in which researchers can study alcohol's health effects.
The report warns that risks can also vary widely between people, meaning some hazards may be very small for some people, even if they pose a significant risk at a public health level.
“The overall impact of alcohol consumption on all-cause mortality depends on the risk of diseases and injuries that are causally related to alcohol. These risks are influenced by multiple factors, including smoking, diet, physical activity, obesity, hepatitis infection, and genetics,” The report stated.
The report estimates that one drink a day, injury and cancer are the biggest factors contributing to the risk of premature death.
For men, injuries accounted for a large portion of the risk of death. This includes a variety of accidents, road injuries and intentional injuries such as suicide and alcohol-related violence.
Cancer is the second leading factor, accounting for one-third of men's excess risk of death.
For women who drank one drink a day, the risk of dying from cancer was statistically similar or higher than the increased risk of fatal injury.
The report noted that the increased risk of several cancers – colorectal, female breast, liver, oral cavity, throat and esophageal cancer – “starts with alcohol consumption and increases with the amount of alcohol consumed.”
U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy issued a recommendation earlier this month call for warning about Cancer risk included in Alcoholic beverages.
Liver disease is the second highest risk and is particularly dangerous for people with other underlying conditions, such as hepatitis C, that make people vulnerable.
People who drink once a day have a lower risk of ischemic stroke than people who never drink. But after two cups a day, this apparent benefit actually disappears.
“The levels of drinking that many people think are moderate may actually be moderately risky, or may not be moderate in terms of health risks,” Naimi said.
