A growing number of experts believe China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, may have already reached its peak emissions or will do so next year, according to a report released this month.
According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a climate think tank, 44% of climate and energy experts surveyed believe that China’s “emissions have already peaked or will peak before 2025.”
CREA said this was well above the 2022 consensus of 15% for emissions to peak in 2025.
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part of the findings CREA released a larger report this month Outlook for China’s climate transition this year.
“China’s emissions trajectory in the coming decades will become the most important factor in the global response to climate change,” the report states.
According to CREA’s forecast, China’s carbon emissions this year may be the same as in 2023, or only increase slightly.
This is due to the continued growth of renewable energy, particularly solar and wind power.
“Even the most optimistic analysts didn’t predict this. [China’s] Solar power generation growth… will expand further after explosive growth in 2023,” CREA said.
The report further states that “China continues to lay the foundation for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, both in building key industries and technologies and in making important progress in policy.”
The key to reducing coal dependence
Much of this progress stems from reining in investment in new fossil power generation and reducing emissions from the steel and transport industries, the report said.
CREA’s findings are consistent with Recent multiple forecasts This suggests that China is expected to reach its emissions peak before the 2030 target.
In fact, some experts believe that China’s carbon emissions It may have peaked last yearconsider coal power generation Hit a record low in May this year. During the same period, non-fossil fuel power generation accounted for 44% of China’s power generation, a record high.
China Electric Power Co. expects to reduce coal’s share of annual power generation to below 60% for the first time in 2024. According to Reuters.
Climate change, economic goals bring uncertainty
Even so, the world’s second-largest economy still needs to address significant challenges to meet its overall climate goals – the biggest of which is booming demand for electricity.
China’s climate has always oscillated between extreme heat and extreme cold. This year’s record heatwave has fueled the country’s electricity demand Growth this year is faster than expected.
And, as winter approaches, Chinese authorities The search for fossil fuels has begunCoal, natural gas, etc., stable energy supply.
Meanwhile, Beijing is also seeking to boost economic activity, which has struggled to recover from Covid-19-related shutdowns.
“The government’s new economic stimulus measures do not place a significant emphasis on emissions, which creates greater uncertainty about the country’s CO2 emissions trajectory,” CREA noted.
Key goals are out of reach
These factors mean China remains behind targets for reducing carbon intensity, or emissions per unit of economic growth.
Beijing has previously pledged to reduce carbon intensity to 18% between 2020 and 2025. But analysts said it is well behind this targetand will need to reduce emissions by 6% during 2024-2025 to catch up.
On the contrary, China’s emissions are expected to increase by a further 0.4% by 2024, according to CREA calculations.
CREA said a new package of economic stimulus measures launched by Beijing in September could also spur the growth of carbon-intensive industries.
“To be consistent with the Paris Agreement…China needs to accelerate the deployment of clean energy or steer the national economy in a less energy-intensive direction,” the research team said in the report.
Beijing also needs to increase investment in various industries, especially building energy efficiency, the report added.
It also calls for enhanced monitoring, reporting and control of greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors.
However, Beijing’s most important task is to ensure transparency in climate policy – a test of China’s upcoming climate policy will be Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)will be submitted before February 2025.
The report noted that Beijing has given “little clarity on China’s emissions path… Emissions are likely to increase before the end of this decade, with emissions reductions thereafter being very slow and gradual.”
“This will make global climate goals nearly impossible to achieve.”
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