January 6, 2025
jakarta – The Kadima Indonesia Alliance (KIM)’s loyalty and commitment to President Prabowo Subianto is being tested following the court’s recent decision to remove the presidential nomination threshold that provides each political party with a chance to win in 2029 opportunity to field a challenger in the 2016 election.
In a surprising ruling last week, the Constitutional Court removed strict thresholds for nominating presidential candidates, which were based on the share of seats in the House of Representatives or the popular vote won by a party or coalition of parties in the last legislative election.
That creates a level playing field for each party, which analysts say will test how far Kim Jong Un's ruling coalition can stay united with the support of Prabowo, who is likely to seek to rule in 2029 Re-elected.
“Parties will eventually consider their long-term survival in politics and may have to start internal discussions to nominate their own members in the next presidential election,” analyst Aditya Perdana said on Saturday.
He said this could “affect the dynamics of the cabinet going forward”, especially if “some party leaders and presidential candidates in the cabinet turn their attention to running for election and improving their own status” rather than ensuring Prabowo's agenda success.
Aditya said a level playing field could also mean Prabowo may have to face potentially strong challengers in the next election, such as his own Vice President Gibran Rakhabumin Raqqa Rakabuming Raka and two rivals in last February's elections: Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan.
Maman Abdelrahman, a veteran politician from the Professional Party, the largest party in Kim Jong Un's alliance, was quick to stress the need to “maintain political stability over the next five years.”
Maman, who is also a minister in Prabowo's cabinet, said on Friday that “there must be no candidate running solely for personal gain and popularity while ignoring the larger agenda of the well-being of the country's people.”
Some small and medium-sized parties in Kim Jong Un's alliance applauded the court for lifting the threshold. These include the National Mission Party (PAN) and the Prosperity and Justice Party (PKS), which failed to nominate their own members in the February polls but retained their seats in the House of Representatives, as well as the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) and the Star and Moon Party The party (PBB) currently has no seats in the House of Representatives.
But PAN deputy chairman Yandri Susanto, who serves as village and regional development minister in Prabowo's cabinet, said the party would not nominate its own members for the 2029 presidential election. Antara quoted Yandri on Friday as saying that Prabowo “remains the best person to lead the country” and that the state “remains loyal to Prabowo.”
Analyst Hendri Satrio predicts signs of disunity within Kim Jong Un's alliance in the next presidential election as it approaches the 2029 election, arguing that parties may seek to continue to enjoy members of their government The benefits of status.
But Adi Prayitno, another analyst at think tank Parameter Indonesia, doubts whether parties backing Prabowo will challenge his re-election in the next presidential election.
Adi said, “Running for president requires a lot of electoral capital, and current President Prabowo currently performs outstandingly in this regard and has the most solid public support and electoral ability.”
“Given that parties are hurt by a lack of popular figures, they may err on the side of caution and choose to gain short-term gains by supporting Prabowo's re-election bid rather than backing their own candidates in the race.”
While removing the threshold to ensure that all parties can nominate candidates, the court directed lawmakers to include provisions in the new electoral law to prevent a plethora of candidates, as long as the new method is not based on shares of House seats or the popular vote.
