Far-right Freedom Party (FPOe) leader Herbert Kickl leaves after talks with Austrian parliament … [+]
Austrian politics has taken a possible turn towards the far right, which could bring the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) – with its unashamedly pro-Russian and fascist leanings – to power in developed Europe.
There was a lack of progress in coalition negotiations to form a government after the general election at the end of September last year (the far-right FPO received 29% of the support and the center-right OVP about the same) and the recent resignation of Karl Nehammer as party leader. Together with the OVP, the political arena was opened for the role of the FPO in government (according to current OVP president Christian Stocker).
The leader of the FPO, the controversial Herbert Kickl, is now tasked by the president with forming a government – most likely together with the OVP, with whom the FPO shares views on immigration and fiscal policy.
Kickel would become a controversial chancellor – while interior minister under Sebastian Kurz, he had police raids on the Austrian secret service (which would be far less trusted by neighboring countries) . He has made controversial statements on issues including the role of the Nazi SS and is known for his sympathies with Russia. This may ultimately be too much for some members of the pro-EU OVP, and we cannot rule out the possibility that other parties in the middle will now be catalyzed to form a coalition.
If coalition talks between the OVP and FPO fail, elections could be the next step (FPO's support currently stands at 36% (previously 29%), while OVP's fell to 21% (previously 28%)).
This development is noteworthy for four reasons. Austria could become the first developed, “quiet” European country with a controversial far-right party at the heart of its government. Second, FPOs may introduce controversial policies, such as mass deportations. Third, they risk coordinating with other pro-Russian/far-right governments (notably Hungary and Slovakia) to undermine the EU and set a more controversial tone. Finally, Austria could become a gateway for Russian interference in Europe.
The EU powers and the EU will see this as a step backwards. Austria may not face fines like Hungary, but security cooperation will be reduced. There is no sign that this will spread to Germany, where we continue to expect Friedrich Merz to become the next chancellor (CDU polls at 30%, SPD at 17%, AfD at 19%) .
