January 17, 2025
Manila ——Three days later, the Trump 2.0 era will officially begin. To say there is a lot at stake is an understatement. President-elect Donald Trump, who will take the oath of office on January 20, placed a hand on the Bible and asked for help, saying: “God, please help me.”
No matter what others think, Trump will bring about tectonic shifts in U.S. domestic policy and international relations. These anticipated large-scale policy shifts have far-reaching implications and are likely to upend the international order established since World War II and reconfigured after 9/11.
As long as the world relies on the dollar as the main global currency for international trade and finance, the United States can maintain ironclad alliances with friends old and new by ensuring the protection of its nuclear umbrella.
International relations are expected to face many challenges from the start, as Trump has called for a reassessment of current U.S. alliances from day one. This is understandable for the incoming administration as it now has the benefit of hindsight, a seasoned veteran coming back with knowledge of past mistakes and successes and ideas on how to change the status quo.
International observers must not forget that U.S. troops were sent to Afghanistan and Iraq as a result of the war on terror following 9/11. Since then, Americans have been less willing to interfere in other countries' troubles, let alone support past wars such as the Iran-Contra affair and the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba. The United States' overseas adventurism has not only stretched its military strength, but also caused American taxpayers to bear excessive military expenditures to fulfill its global police role.
We already saw a preview of how foreign policy will be shaped on Capitol Hill in the future during Pete Hegseth's confirmation hearing as defense secretary on Tuesday, in which he vowed to accelerate his efforts to combat China and Russia. modernization of all three pillars of the nuclear triad and weapons systems without nuclear delivery capabilities.
There's a lot going on in America these days besides a highly polarized electorate. Trump will certainly prioritize domestic issues rather than getting involved in intractable conflicts around the world.
But according to David Leonhardt of the New York Times, Trump is not a full-blown isolationist, and I agree. Trump is acutely aware that he must confront other powers that could undermine U.S. power and interests, such as Russia, China and Middle Eastern oil producers. As such, Israel will remain the fulcrum of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, which involves regional (and Islamic) rivals Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar.
Chip war. In the Indo-Pacific region, the United States faces its biggest competitor, China. But it is impossible to decouple trade from China in the short term because China is, after all, the world's manufacturing center. This is why Washington continues to engage Beijing bilaterally despite its fierce competition on the global stage. As long as Taiwan meets at least 90% of the U.S.'s advanced chip needs and its allies Japan and South Korea remain key players in the global semiconductor supply chain, the U.S. presence in Asia will continue.
That means the three East Asian allies, plus the Philippines, which currently hosts nine temporary locations for U.S. troops, can continue to have strong ties with the United States under Trump. The Biden administration's policies to reinvigorate the U.S. semiconductor industry through the bipartisan $50 billion CHIPS Act of 2022 can lead to self-reliance, but it will take time.
Therefore, if the Marcos administration can use this opportunity to renew its interest in the Philippines as a reliable ally and defense against China, it could become a darling of President Trump in his second term.
But Manila should go beyond military aid and urge Washington to expand the Philippines’ semiconductor industry, turning it into a producer of advanced microchips, which historian Chris Miller has described as “the new oil” (Chip Wars, 2022). Expanding wafer manufacturing capabilities isn't just expensive. This kind of technology transfer requires trust and is reserved only for the closest friends, as the Philippines has painfully demonstrated to the United States since the fall of Bataan in 1942.
“Military, economic and geopolitical power are all based on computer chips,” Miller said. Therefore, he said, in order to catch up with the United States' technological advantage, China “spends more money each year on imported chips than on… The money spent on imported oil is even higher.”
International relations are so complex that maintaining the balance of power in Asia is not easy for the United States. Complicating matters are North Korea's subjugation to China and Russia's expanding interests in Europe. The closed kingdom continues to rely on these two countries to support its military and nuclear arsenal, which may well threaten the United States mainland.
