China's population continues to decline, and the number of deaths is still higher than the slight increase in births.
Experts say this trend, and the negative impact on the economy, will accelerate in the coming years.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's total population will decrease by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024. This compares with 1.409 billion in 2023.
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Friday's data heightened concerns that the world's second-largest economy will struggle as the number of workers and consumers declines.
Rising costs for elder care and retirement benefits could also put additional pressure on already indebted local governments.
China's total number of births was 9.54 million, compared with 9.02 million in 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The birth rate rose to 6.77 per 1,000 people in 2024, compared with 6.39 per 1,000 people in 2023.
Deaths will increase from 11.1 million in 2023 to 10.93 million in 2024.
China’s birth rate has been falling for decades one child policy China implemented rapid urbanization from 1980 to 2015.
Raising children is expensive
Like neighboring Japan and South Korea, large numbers of Chinese have moved from rural areas to cities, where it is more expensive to have children.
High childcare and education costs, job uncertainty and an economic slowdown also prevent many young Chinese from getting married and starting families.
Demographers say sexism and traditional expectations for women to care for the home exacerbate the problem.
“China’s population decline is largely due to deep-rooted structural causes: without fundamental structural shifts—from strengthening social safety nets to eliminating gender discrimination—the trend cannot be reversed,” the university said. said Zhou Yun, assistant professor of sociology.
Demographers say a 12.4% increase in marriages in 2023 (many postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic) is responsible for a rebound in births in 2024, but the number is expected to fall again in 2025.
Beijing urges couples to have children
Marriage is a leading indicator of fertility in China, and many single women do not receive child-rearing benefits.
Authorities have launched a series of measures in 2024 to boost China's birth rate.
In December, they urged universities to include marriage and “love education” in their curricula, emphasizing positive views on marriage, love, parenthood and family.
In November, the State Council summoned local governments to pool resources to address China's demographic crisis and spread respect for “age-appropriate” childbearing and marriage.
By the end of this century, the number of women of childbearing age (defined by the United Nations as 15 to 49 years old) in China is expected to decrease by more than two-thirds, to less than 100 million.
this At the same time, the retirement age population aged 60 and above is expected to increase By 2035, the population will increase from about 280 million today to more than 400 million.
The state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences said the pension system will run out of funds by 2035.
Data show that by 2024, the proportion of China's population aged 60 and over will be approximately 22%, or 310.31 million, while the number in 2023 will be 296.97 million.
The process of urbanization has also accelerated, with the urban population increasing by 10.83 million to 943.3 million. At the same time, the rural population decreased to 464.78 million.
- Reuters Additional editing by Jim Pollard
See also:
China to raise retirement age to ease pension cost crisis
Number of older Chinese workers unable to retire surges
China raises retirement age to avoid pension time bomb
China's population drops again, economic fallout worries
COVID-19 deaths could cause China's population to decline again
Shanghai's population decline blamed on migrant workers withdrawing
China's first population decline in 60 years sparks concern
Japan’s population sees biggest drop in nine years – South China Morning Post
China's population growth hits lowest level in decades
