January 21, 2025
Seoul – Unprecedented political turmoil triggered by impeached President Yoon Seok-yeol entered a new phase on Sunday when he was formally arrested under martial law imposed on December 3. This is the first-ever formal arrest of a sitting president after a Seoul court decided to issue an arrest warrant to detain him for an extended period of time.
Given recent political developments involving Yoon, it's no exaggeration to say that more South Koreans would support the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea rather than the arrested president's People's Power Party.
But a poll last week showed the opposite. A Gallup Korea survey released on Friday showed that the ruling People's Power Party's support rate was 39%, surpassing the Democratic Party's 36%. This is the first time in the past five months that the ruling party has surpassed the main opposition party in South Korea's Gallup poll.
Compared with the poll a month ago, support for the People's Power Party increased significantly by 15 percentage points, while the Democratic Party fell by 12 percentage points.
The reversal in support for the two major parties is not limited to Gallup polls. The National Barometer survey released on Thursday by Embrain Public, Korea Research and other institutions showed that the support rate of the People's Power Party reached 35%, defeating the Democratic Party's 33%.
The gap between the two parties had been narrowing since the third week of December, with the Lib Dems leading, but last week both polls finally reversed course. Given the huge shock and anger caused by President Yun's brief martial law, and the People's Power Party's support for President Yun's decision, the recent increase in popular support for the People's Power Party and the decline in support for the Democratic Party may be over. Puzzled.
Conventional wisdom holds that public sentiment will continue to shift against the People's Power Party and favorably toward the Democratic Party, which led the parliament to pass the impeachment vote against Yoon. Yet despite Yoon's arrest by investigators led by the Senior Officials Corruption Investigation Office, last week's polls appeared to show Democrats failing to capitalize on what should have been a moment of clear political advantage.
What happened? Political experts have raised the possibility of a reintegration of conservative voters linked to Yoon Eun-hye, even as he faces the consequences of a failed self-coup. Democrats, meanwhile, downplayed the reversal in their support, arguing that conservative respondents were more engaged in the latest survey than those who lean moderate to liberal, skewing the results.
But the Democrats’ explanation sounded unconvincing. Surveys in recent weeks by pollsters, including major research firms with proven track records, have consistently shown a relative decline in support for Democrats.
Democrats must figure out what they did wrong instead of blaming others. These polls indicate a level of dissatisfaction with Democratic moves that some may see as overreach.
In the eyes of some, the Democratic Party's attempt to undermine Acting President and Prime Minister Han Deok-soo's status and impeach him at a time of political crisis is a compromise of its own image. He also seemed intent on attacking the current acting presidential minister Choi Sang-mok.
Some critics, including conservative voters and the media, have interpreted the Democratic Party's recent moves as a thinly veiled attempt to minimize the legal risks faced by party representative Lee Jae-myung and hold a presidential election as quickly as possible.
Some of the Democratic Party's proposals, such as monitoring private KakaoTalk conversations, appear to have frustrated some moderates and young voters in their 20s and 30s who are now driving the People's Power party up in the polls. Beyond the ongoing Yoon investigation, Democrats cannot put political disputes ahead of addressing public concerns.
