January 22, 2025
Manila – The waning power of mainstream, mass or traditional media is best demonstrated by the recent findings regarding the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte. Much of the news focused on the findings from these social weather stations: 41% in favor, 35% against, and 19% undecided. But in my opinion, the most crucial number is this: only 53% of people who were asked about the entire riot in the survey had heard of it.
Arguably, however, floor pressure has occurred, with a less capable Senate (which is rapidly losing its raison d'être) and a fairly active (but capable) House, which has repeatedly had the Vice President (and even the former President) is in trouble. In those early days, it was safe to assume that the vice president was in much bigger trouble than it appears now.
To repeat: When asked about national awareness of the vice presidential impeachment complaint, the results were: Previously aware, 47%; Previously aware, 47%; Previously aware, 47%; Previously aware, 47% %; previously known, 47%. Never heard of it until now, 53%. In (we assume) media-saturated NCR, 59% knew this, compared with only 41% now; in Northern Luzon and Central Luzon, 53% and 47% respectively; in Balanced Luzon, 49% and 51%; in Southern Luzon, 46% and 54% respectively. The media gap between urban (51% and 49%) and rural (43% and 57%) can be seen in the respective results. Class ABC has 51% and 49% of the population, which is far from the largest population group, and class D has 49% and 51%, which is important because most people are almost equally divided , the proportion of the poorest is almost equal between 35% and 65% of the population in category E.
The following regions had the highest percentages in favor of impeachment: Northern Luzon, 53%; Southern Luzon, 52%; and Balanced Luzon and ABC categories, 50% each. Mindanao had the highest divisions at 56%; NCR and urban respondents, 37%; Class E, 36%; Class D (the largest class) at 35%. Visayas had the highest undecided rates at 24%; Northern Luzon at 23%; Rural and Category E at 20% each.
Of course, ignorance is no bar to the formation of opinions, especially when public opinion confers or delegitimizes a cause. In this case, whether previously known or newly learned, the outcome remains of paramount importance to the Vice President and, by extension, her father. After all, you have to consider other surveys about the relative popularity and/or support of the president and vice president: both are down, but the president overall still maintains a (slight) majority support and the vice president is in the majority The edge of approval. One overall estimate (combining different surveys and taking an average) estimates that the president's approval rating fell from an initial high of 77% in late 2022 to 54% as of December, while the vice president's approval rating fell from a high of 82% The current 50% is approved for the same period.
One can make another inference about the diminishing influence and power of mass media based on advertising spending and survey results. A recent report by the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (based on published advertising rate cards, which is highly theoretical, of course, but you get the idea) placed Camille Villar and Imee Marcos’ TV commercials Spending is pegged at close to P1. Among them, Abby Binay is worth over P500 million, Francis Tolentino, Ray Villafuerte (a local), Benhur Abalos, Bong Revilla and Bong Go are worth about P400 million, P350 million, 3 100 million pesos, 140 million pesos and 100 million pesos.
Marcos is instructive: She chose to support the vice president, and her Christmas video had 1.5 million views, but political stability, media spending and online ratings don't seem to have changed the status quo: Her trajectory in the survey has been down.
This suggests that the vice president's declining approval rating is a true reflection of public opinion. Fortunately for her, the president's approval ratings were also slipping, and more importantly, since he had to remain aloof, the case had to be made by lawmakers who no longer liked their former audiences because the media itself had a huge influence. If public opinion is not changed through political action or advertising as it once was, it can still be changed when news does filter in. But it takes longer — and individual political actors may actually be more recalcitrant, in the sense that public sentiment is less volatile at any given time.
