January 27, 2025
Seoul – The recent poll in South Korea confuses political experts. In a few days after the president Yin Shilie announced the martial law order, with the surge in support of impeachment, Yin Shilie's support rate reached a record low. The support rate of opposition to the Democratic Party of South Korea has risen, and his leader Li Zaiming leads all possible opponents in the election that replaces Yin. Then, at the end of December, the trend began to reverse. What happened? what does that mean?
A poll conducted by the Gallop Korean company in mid -January shows that the Ruins People's Power Party has led for the first time since August 2024, with a support rate of 39%, while the Democratic Party is 36%. However, in the next presidential election, 48%of people hoped that Democratic candidates would win, and 40%of people hoped that the people's power party candidate would win, but the gap has been greatly reduced. The support rate for Yin impeachrs was close to 75%, and now it has dropped to 57%, and the opposition rate is only 3%.
The turning point of reversal corresponds to the impeachment of South Korean Prime Minister Han Dezhi. South Korean President refused to appoint three other judges to the Constitution Court, who was responsible for judging Yin's impeachment case. Deputy Prime Minister Cui Shangmu served as Agent State Prime Minister and the President. He agreed to appoint two judges, which temporarily eased his threat of impeachment.
The threat of Han's impeachment and continuing impeachment has caused people to worry about the government's possible collapse, which has prompted the public to seek stability. In the previous two presidential impeachment cases, in 2004, Roh Moo -hyun and Park Geun -hye's impeachment in 2016, the Prime Minister served as the acting president and continued as the president until the problem was resolved.
The Urporal impeachment case was not passed, and he quickly restored the power of the president; Park Geun -hye's impeachment case was maintained, and she was fired, which means that the Prime Minister will continue to hold this position until the new president is selected. The public is familiar with this process, but is not familiar with the process of impeaching potential agent presidents many times. In this context, the public's decline in the Democratic Party's support rate can be interpreted as a warning of “impeachment and more power”.
Recently, Yin used the arrested battle to unite his hardcore supporters. They became more and more aggressive, including the use of violence, and the riots in the Court of West District on January 19 proved this.
The exposure of the anger Yin supporters exacerbated the sense of insecurity of the country and highlighted the polarization of politics. This did not help Yin Enhui to expand the support rate, but it helped extinguish some of the impeachment enthusiasm.
From a deeper level, intergenerational attitude is playing a role. Although the support for impeachment Yin is still strong, most of this supported enthusiasm comes from the “386th generation” that dominated Korean politics since the 1980s. It has now entered its 60s. This generation is named after being born in the 1960s and in the 1980s. Although the scope of democratic movements is wide, most of the energy comes from students. They often take huge personal risks to go to the street demonstration and demand democratic reform. As they grow older, they continue to participate, which has always been the main driving force of the left -wing political movement.
Polls show that Yin has the strongest support among the elderly at the age of 70 and over. The common experience of this group of people matured during the economic prosperity of President Park Jung -hee under the dictatorship of President Park Jung -hee. They strongly opposed North Korea and still skeptical of contact with North Korea. They respect strong leaders and support conservative politics throughout adult life.
Despite various differences, the two generations are similar in terms of seeking politics as goodness and evil. This view has almost no room for different opinions and compromises. In this game, the opponent must be defeated because it is bad and pose a threat to the country.
The sharp political dualization may stimulate the vitality of the 386th generation and above, but the younger generation is becoming more and more tired of it. Adults have become at least 40 years old after South Korea have become advanced democratic countries. They understand the complexity of contemporary life, hoping that the government can work hard for common interests, rather than trying to impose the will of the party.
The increasing rejection of the younger generation of the older generation of politics is a pushing factor for polls. They hoped Yin to go out, but kept Li Zaiming alert. They are looking for a capable, pragmatic, and practical democratic value, but they have not found it. When they do this, it is expected that that person will soar in public opinion.
Robert J. Fousser is an associate professor of the Department of Korean Education at the National University of Seoul. He wrote articles about South Korea in Prodenz, Rhode Island. You can contact him through [email protected]. The view here is the author's own point of view. — Ed.
