February 18, 2025
Islamabad – Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's government completed a year of power? Although the ruling coalition claims many achievements, this is not reflected in how the public evaluates its performance.
A survey by IPSOS found in December that nearly 80% of people believe the country is moving in the wrong direction. In fact, Sharif's governance is overwhelming, several challenges in the country have not been addressed, and political stability remains elusive.
The controversial election has caused a shadow on the Sharif government from the beginning of its term and has deprived it of legitimacy. The elections resulted in an open parliament and a decentralized mandate. Imran Khan's PTI won multiple seats and became the largest group in parliament. But it is the PML-N and allies that are backed by the PPP.
PML-N lacks a majority, and therefore lack of confidence increases its dependence on institutions, which also requires a fight against Khan and PTI. Indeed, the glue that fuses alliance members and institutions is a common hostility to Khan.
This paved the way for the military to have its most extensive role in civilian setups to date. The hybrid governing arrangement after 2018 has become a direct military participation in more areas of governance, including the economy.
Even the standards of Pakistan’s history of military influence over civilian governments are unprecedented. Sharif seems happy to put more space in military leadership. This led to a decisive shift in civil balance, giving the latter an advantage.
Opposing PTI is far from easy for the government. The frequent street protests at PTI and the disruption of parliamentary litigation have disturbed the government and focused on confrontation with the opposition. On May 9 and November 26, violent street clashes, and both sides adopted serious narratives about what happened. Political warfare also took place on the floors of houses and in court.
If the government cannot cover up Khan's popularity by bringing legal cases against him, PTI cannot put pressure on freedom to the ruling coalition sentenced to prison since August 2023 and meet its other requirements. The government was unable to “resolve” Khan’s problem, increasingly repressive measures and crackdowns on the opposition. This will move Pakistan in a more authoritarian direction.
The governance of the ruling coalition has been growing and is marked by growing authoritarianism.
The authoritarianization of the country led by Sharif is increasingly reflected in a series of government actions. The most important thing is the 26th Constitution Amendment. This was rushed in Parliament, without debate. It combats judicial independence by surrendering the judiciary to the administration. The amendment gives the government the power to select the chief justice from a panel of three senior judges in the Supreme Court.
A parliamentary committee that reflects a government majority has the right to nominate CJ. It chose the third judge of the qualification list, Yahya Afridi, as Chief Justice – replacing Justice Mansoor Ali Shah, who was considered too independent. The government also gained the power to transfer high court judges. When doing so, the judge of the Islamabad High Court objected, but in vain. The government's manipulation of the high judiciary has sowed an unprecedented division among judges and sparked protests from lawyers and opposition.
The Sharif government regards parliament as a rubber stamp and also tries to kill freedom of speech. It has grown far beyond the civilian predecessors in trying to control electronic media and social media. With the help of the agency, it uses informal means to “regulate” the media and often issues instructions to the TV channel about its coverage.
It changed the Cyber Crime Act to amend the 2016 online speech, which sparked angry protests from journalists, but the government refused to back down. The PECA changes are designed to tighten government control over the digital space, which has banned X and other Internet restrictions and censorship.
Government economic management means progress in establishing short-term macroeconomic stability. It received a $7 billion IMF loan package by imposing fiscal discipline, carrying out tax and austerity measures and limiting subsidies. Its economic measures help stabilize the economy and control inflation, but have not improved any structural changes in taxation systems and expenditures.
Furthermore, stability has not yet involved establishing sufficient loan repayment capacity. Given Pakistan’s huge external financing needs, low foreign exchange reserves and heavy debt burdens in the coming years, this has raised doubts about its sustainability. From a decade ago, exports have dropped to 8% of GDP. Continuous demands to lenders (especially China) to loan turntables show a continued lack of repayment – more borrowing is needed.
The government was unable to propose an actionable indigenous economic plan that identified past mistakes and corrected to map a sustainable path to growth. The highly discerning Uraan plan does not offer a strategy on how it will achieve its goals (such as $100 billion exports over eight years). Surprisingly, it is not enough to emphasize reform.
The transition from stability to growth and investment also requires a stable political environment, which remains elusive. Despite the efforts made by SIFC over the past year, investment has remained stagnant. The investment-to-GDP ratio of 13% has actually decreased from previous years.
Under Sharif, security situations deteriorated significantly. The surge in terrorist and radical violence, with violence across KP and Bal Luchistan provinces causing the deadliest casualties in the past decade to suffer from law enforcement casualties. The government continues to convene meetings on security challenges but is unable to show improvements locally.
Space does not allow evaluation of Sharif's foreign policy. It is important to note that it lacks any vision or strategic direction and loses the clarity and coherence required to meet challenges and respond to the drastic shift in global geopolitics. Continuous foreign travel, especially the Gulf countries, has barely covered up this.
Sharif's foreign policy efforts are primarily committed to seeking loans and debt transfers from close allies, thereby reducing Pakistan to pleaders in its bilateral relations.
The writer is a former ambassador to the United States, Britain and the United Nations.
