U.S. President Donald Trump (L) shook hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of a press conference in the Beijing Hall on November 9, 2017.
Fred Dufour/AFP via Getty Images
At least in words, there is no more difficulty than Donald Trump for China. As he regularly proved during the presidential campaign, Trump blamed China for its coalition, economic dislocation and blindness to Mexico's fentanyl production, viewing China as a devilish figure in the political dictionary.
However, it is worth noting that Trump does not provide geopolitical criticism of China. No mention of the South China Sea. There is no caution about the encounter between China and the Philippine Navy. Most notably, there is no defense against Taiwan, if any, usually bipartisan support in the United States Trump's comments on Taiwan are somewhat demeaning“Taiwan should pay us,” he said. “You know, we are no different from an insurance company. Taiwan gives us nothing. Taiwan is 9,500 miles away. 68 miles away from China.”
besides, Trump repeatedly adds to Chinese President Xi Jinping. U.S. President Donald Trump said he “always have good relationships” with Chinese President Xi Jinping and he looks forward to “get along with China.” He continued to make it personal: “But I like Xi Jinping very much. I always like him.”
In addition to direct bilateral issues, Trump has given China two considerable gifts: First, Trump took a step back from Asia's trade plans that may limit China's influence and influence. Second, Trump has been in conflict with the cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy since the Kissinger and Nixon era to prevent Russo-China's cooperation.
Then, Trump seemed to have reversed himself, initially imposing a 20% tariff on Chinese goods and combining it with a (global) 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum.
China is obliged to respond and impose a 15% tariff Coal and LNG productsand 10% tariffs on crude oil, agricultural machinery and large-engine vehicles imported from the United States were also introduced Antitrust Investigation on Google And add owners of Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, owners of American fashion brands, to their “unreliable entities” list. China has also restricted exports of five rare metals used as a key component of the defense and clean energy industries.
So, what conclusions can we draw from this record?
– Trump likes bold, bold and friction as management tools. He likes to play the bad cop. He likes to use sticks and rarely uses carrots.
– He likes wedge problems and scapegoats. Before moving, he played his own base.
– Foreign policy is mainly Trump's domestic problems. Trade is the center of his policy, not the role of the United States in the world. Trump showed no appetite for deflection or opposition to unilateral changes in international borders.
We can predict possible outcomes of this method to China.
– We will see a statement from China's modest movement on economic issues. There will be some market opening and some investment commitments. These changes must be big enough to make Trump declare a victory, but small enough to make China call them a few small steps, and they will do anything anyway.
-Temperatures in Taiwan will drop. Trump will point out that the United States has no interest in promoting Taiwan independence, but does not want to see status quo Change with force. China will reiterate Taiwan as part of China and its destiny is to include it in its government.
– Tiktok, Tesla and other potentially sensitive investments will have a separate stagnation. In other words, these companies will continue to operate in each other's market, perhaps making some adjustments to control and data privacy.
– Trump will not increase China's support for Russia. He is not important to this question.
– After Trump's victory statement, China will infer that latitude is excellent in its commitments. In other words, if China fulfills its 90% trade commitment, will Trump complain or will he still declare victory? What should I do if China only fulfills 80% or 70%? Psychologically, regardless of the accuracy of such a claim, Trump is fixed in declaring success. China's understanding of this shows that if anything, there is little success. China will take resentment and minimalist moves to announce the issues addressed are Trump and XI's interests.
