In January-February, China's imports fell by more than 8%, and exports slowed as people feared a new trade war with the United States rose.
Talk about US tariffs that have had a shadow on China's trade momentum in the first two months of this year Trump imposes an additional 10% tax on Chinese goods After the claim, Beijing has made enough to stop the flow of the deadly opioid fentanyl.
Analysts say exporters have been pre-loaded goods before curbs, and the collapse of import signals Beijing has begun to shrink purchases of major goods as it prepares for four years of hard trade tensions for the second Trump administration.
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“The decline in imports is a leap in grains, iron ore and crude oil, and may be related to China's consideration of strategic building reserves,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist in the intelligence department of economist.
“China may have imported too much in 2024 and needs to reduce purchases,” he added. “For iron ore, it is true, because steel production clearly exceeds what the economy needs.”
Export momentum has been a highlight of the economy so far, otherwise home and business confidence struggling by the long-standing debt crisis in the real estate market.
Customs data show that China's imports fell 8.4% year-on-year, while exports from the largest manufacturing countries in the same period rose by only 2.3%, with less high expectations for a 10.7% increase in December.
“(Slowing exports) may be partly due to a slowdown in export preload, which is a powerful way to avoid a trade war,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
“The sharp drop in imports may reflect weak domestic demand and also a decline in handling trade imports,” he added. “The damage from higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods may occur next month.”
“Over-dependence on exports”
The January-February period was expected to achieve a second wave of U.S. tariffs and Chinese countermeasures on March 4, when Trump raised China's tariffs to 20%.
That Promotes Beijing to impose a 10%-15% retaliation tax on U.S. agricultural exports Just minutes after Trump's tariffs came into effect, restrictions on 25 U.S. companies were imposed.
Chinese policymakers have vowed to prioritize consumption and domestic demand in 2025.
“A growing complex external environment, the growth of unilateralism and trade protectionism may have a greater impact on China's trade,” said Li, highlighting the urgency of China's current growth model that relies mainly on manufacturing and trade.
Similarly, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held a phone call with Chinese Vice Premier, his Life in late February, urging China to rebalance its economy. Bessent repeatedly condemned the Chinese economy for its excessive reliance on exports.
China's manufacturing activity was signed in January, partly due to the Lunar New Year holiday, but has expanded at its fastest pace in recent months.
South Korea is a key indicator of Chinese imports, and as fears of a trade war were met, South Korea's Chinese shipments shrank by 1.4% in February.
The China Customs Administration released trade data for January and February to smooth out distortions caused by changing timing of the Lunar New Year, which landed between January 28 and February 4 this year.
- Jim Pollard's additional editor Reuters
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